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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2024-06-10), Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $472.27. The stock price of Chipotle Mexican Grill is $3169.02. Therefore, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 6.7.
The historical rank and industry rank for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Chipotle Mexican Grill was 8.90. The lowest was 1.76. And the median was 4.16.
The historical data trend for Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 170.69 | 169.87 | 223.85 | 319.76 | 429.28 |
Chipotle Mexican Grill Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | |
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 352.32 | 391.21 | 422.47 | 429.28 | 472.27 |
For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Chipotle Mexican Grill's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $696.84.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | = | (Growth Multiple | * | Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) | + | Total Stockholders Equity (Mar24) | * | 0.8) | / | Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) |
= | (14.862653310476 | * | 696.844 | + | 3361.329 | * | 0.8) | / | 27.624 | |
= | 472.27 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Chipotle Mexican Grill's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF | = | Share Price | / | Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF |
= | 3169.02 | / | 472.27099563732 | |
= | 6.71 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Chipotle Mexican Grill's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Brian R Niccol | director, officer: Chairman, CEO | 1 GLEN BELL WAY, IRVINE CA 92618 |
Gregg L Engles | director | 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202 |
Scott Boatwright | officer: Chief Restaurant Officer | 1401 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202 |
Robin S Hickenlooper | director | 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
Laurie Schalow | officer: Chief Corp Affairs, Food Sft | 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660 |
Curtis E Garner | officer: Chief Technology Officer | C/O AEROHIVE NETWORKS, INC., 330 GIBRALTAR DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
Christopher W Brandt | officer: Chief Marketing Officer | 2202 NORTH WESTSHORE BLVD, TAMPA FL 33607 |
Patricia Filikrushel | director | DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION, 100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072 |
Laura Fuentes | director | 7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102 |
Albert S Baldocchi | director | 1601 HIGH STREET, BOULDER CO 80304 |
Marissa Andrada | officer: Chief D&I and People Officer | C/O KATE SPADE & COMPANY 2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
Roger E Theodoredis | officer: Chief Legal Officer & GC | 1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202 |
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.p. | director | 787 11TH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
Jack Hartung | officer: CFO & Chief Development Ofcr | 1543 WAZEE STREET, SUITE 200, DENVER CO 80202 |
Scott Harlan Maw | director | 1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202 |
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